UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Releases Long-Term Regional Economic Forecast


On Tuesday afternoon, the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP) at the University of Texas at El Paso released long-term projections for demographics, labor markets, business activity, economic performance and more in the region in “Long-term economic trends from Borderplex to 2049”.

The new report is the first long-term economic forecast published by UTEP since 2010. It is co-authored by Tom Fullerton, Ph.D., professor of economics at UTEP, and Steven Fullerton, associate director and economist of the BRMP.

Despite the challenges that the Borderplex regional economy is currently experiencing due to the unexpected global recession from COVID-19, the latest issue of the forecast indicates that the long-term outlook for the region remains favorable.

The report states that El Paso’s population will exceed one million in 2041 and approach 1.1 million by 2049. Population expansion coupled with higher incomes means that the number of households in Sun City will reach 348 600 by the end of the forecast period. The growing demand for information services will also lead to a steady increase in college enrollment in El Paso County.

Total employment is expected to exceed 591,000 jobs by 2049, but payrolls are expected to fall in three sectors – manufacturing, retail and federal military employment.

Sectors in which the wage bill is expected to increase include health care and social services, hotels and restaurants, finance, insurance and real estate, and transportation and warehousing.

Tom Fullerton has indicated that the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement will lead more companies such as Amazon to invest in El Paso.

El Paso’s personal income will exceed $ 136 billion while gross business activity is expected to exceed $ 43.3 billion by 2049. Wage disbursements are expected to reach $ 66 billion during this period.

The BRMP report also highlights long-term trends in El Paso housing prices, non-residential construction, trade, water consumption, transportation, and international border crossings.

Tom Fullerton said the new long-term forecast provides useful information for all businesses and government agencies faced with lending, borrowing and long-term planning decisions.

For more information on the BRMP, visit their website.