The IMF revises its economic forecasts for 2022/2023

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s real gross domestic product (GDP) upward to 3.4% in April 2022 and downward to 3.1% in 2023 from 2.7% in January 2022 at light of the strong momentum seen in the last quarter of 2021.

The projection of some of these economic indicators was a reflection of the Russian-Ukrainian war, according to Ari Aisen, Resident Representative of Nigeria, International Monetary Fund (IMF), during the Stanbic IBTC Nigeria Investors webinar series held today. today.

Aisen said the medium to long-term growth forecast in Nigeria is unlikely to be as high as before unless there are events that alter the country’s economic situation.

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The consumer price index is expected to increase to 16.1% in April 2022 and decrease to 13.1% in April 2023, from 14.3% in January 2022 and 17.0% in April 2021.

The overall fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP projection was revised down to 6.4% in April 2022 and further revised down to 5.9% in April 2023 from 6.1% in January 2022 and 5 ,0 April 2021, reflecting subsidies.

Public debt as a percentage of GDP has been revised upwards from 36.7% in January 2022 and 37% in April 2021 to 37.4% in April 2022 and 38.8% in April 2023.

The current account balance as a percentage of GDP is expected to decline by 2.0% in January 2022 compared to

“The economy rebounded quite strongly in 2021 compared to what we had forecast earlier, with growth of 3.4%, rebounding from a negative contraction in the previous year. With the services sector being the main contributor to this performance,” Aisen said.

According to him, the growth was helped by the limited number of COVID cases which allowed the resumption of activities after the severe confinement in the second quarter of 2020. And this despite the fact that Nigeria has a level of vaccination lower than the average of Sub-Saharan Africa.