India’s Q4 GDP Snapshot: Has Economic Growth Slowed in the Last Quarter?

The National Statistics Office (NSO) will release data on India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of FY22 and the full fiscal year 2021-22 on Tuesday.

According to reports, Asia’s third-largest economy is expected to accelerate in the January-March quarter from a year earlier.

GDP growth stood at 20.3% in the April-June (Q1) quarter of FY2021-22 and 8.5% in the July-September (Q2) quarter. During the third quarter of 2021-2022, economic growth slowed to 5.4%, but was higher than China’s GDP expansion of 4% over the same period and the country maintained its position of fastest growing large economy in the world.

According to provisional estimates published in May 2021, GDP had contracted by 7.3% in 2020-21 due to the Covid-19 epidemic and the subsequent national lockdown to contain the pandemic. The ONS has also revised down the real GDP growth figure for 2019-20 to 3.7% from an earlier estimate of 4%.

GDP growth in 2021-22 is estimated at 8.9% against a contraction of 6.6% in 2020-21, according to Reuters.

According to the median estimate from a Bloomberg survey, India is expected to register GDP growth of 8.7% in the financial year 2021-22.

Earlier in May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the benchmark repo rate by 40 basis points in an unscheduled meeting.

The nearly 4% depreciation of the rupee against the dollar this year has also made imported items more expensive, prompting the federal government to restrict wheat and sugar exports and cut fuel taxes, joining the RBI in the fight against inflation.

Supply shortages and rising input prices were weighing on output in mining, construction and manufacturing, a Reuters report said, even as credit growth accelerated and that states spend more.

Consumer confidence fell in early May, plunging for the second month in a row, as rising fuel prices and broader inflation hit household finances, according to Refinitiv.

The unemployment rate for people aged 15 and over in urban areas fell to 8.7% in October-December 2021, from 10.3% in the previous year quarter, according to an ONS survey.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said last week that the central bank’s main objective was to bring inflation closer to its target, but it could not ignore growth concerns.

CII Chairman TV Narendran said India’s economy is expected to grow by 7.5-8% this fiscal year with exports playing a key role in the country’s success, but the country must remain prepared for any fallout from the next wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. , and the impact of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war.

Earlier, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund cut India’s growth forecast for FY23 to 8% and 8.2%, respectively.

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