IMF Lowers Emerging Asia Economic Forecast Against Anti-Covid Hit Rate

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its annual growth forecast for emerging Asia. He warned that a slower-than-expected vaccine rollout, new viral mutations and tighter financial conditions are risks in the region.

It lowered its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) in emerging and developing Asia by 1.1 percentage points to 7.5% this year, while raising the outlook for next year’s GDP by 0.4 percentage point to 6.4%. The region’s economies shrank 0.9% last year.

“A double blow to emerging and developing economies by the worsening dynamics of the pandemic and the tightening of external financial conditions would seriously delay their recovery and push global growth below the benchmark for this outlook,” he said. IMF in its World Economic Outlook.

For the ASEAN 5 economies, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, it reduced its GDP forecast for 2021 by 0.6 percentage point to 4.3% and increased its estimate. 2022 from 0.2 percentage point to 6.3%. He said the recent waves of infection were causing a “drag on business.” The ASEAN 5 economies contracted 3.4% last year.

Indonesia has been hardest hit by the coronavirus among the 5 ASEAN economies with 3.2 million cases and nearly 87,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University in the United States. The Philippines comes in second with 1.6 million cases and more than 27,000 deaths. Malaysia has reported more than one million infections and more than 8,000 deaths. Singapore was relatively unaffected with 64,000 cases and 37 deaths. The island also has the most effective vaccination campaign among the 5 ASEAN countries, with 63 percent of the population. Malaysia vaccinated 27%, Indonesia 11.5% and the Philippines 7.9% of its population.

The IMF forecasts a 4.2% growth for Cambodia this year in its April economic outlook, accelerating to 6% in 2022. This pace would place the country among the fastest growing ASEAN economies. This year.

Cambodia’s GDP contracted 3.1% in 2020, the biggest drop in recent history.

The Kingdom’s growth will continue to be the fastest in the region if the IMF forecasts prove to be correct. In April, he said Cambodian GDP would grow to 6.8% in 2026. He did not release any GDP forecast for Cambodia in his July report and IMF Resident Representative Asuhisa Ojima did not release any GDP forecast for Cambodia in his July report. did not respond to phone calls and emails requesting an update.

Cambodia’s vaccination campaign is on track, with more than 7 million people receiving at least one vaccine and vaccination programs spanning from major cities to the countryside, prompting the local representative of the World Health Organization to congratulate the government.

“So happy that more vulnerable people in more remote areas have been vaccinated,” Li Ailan wrote on Twitter. “Thank you and congratulations to #Cambodia”.

The Kingdom has seen more than 74,000 infections and more than 1,300 deaths from Covid-19, but infections have steadily declined from their peak, with more than a third of the population having been vaccinated twice, easing the fears of another business closure.

Yesterday, Khmer time reported that a discouraged setback is setting in, dampening hopes of a return to normal life with the Delta variant of the disease affecting people through migrant workers returning from Thailand. It is more virulent, spreads faster, and is more likely to be fatal.

  • Key words: COVID-19 vaccine, IMF